Friday, May 30, 2008

The Internal Situation In Iran -- Will There Be A Counter Revolution?

From the Belmont Club:

Spengler at the Asia Times asked a year ago: what do you give someone who has everthing -- "cancer, AIDS, Alzheimer's, diabetes, kidney failure, and so forth. Iran's economy is so damaged that it is impossible to tell how bad things are. Except perhaps for the oilfields of southern Iraq, and perhaps also northern Saudi Arabia, there is nothing the West can give Iran to forestall an internal breakdown."

That degree of dysfunction was underscored by a recent Pajamas Media article describing the biggest case of corruption in Iran. Or possibly the Middle East. The chief auditor of the Iranian parliament has reported that $35 B of the country's oil revenues has just gone missing. Not that there's a heck of a lot to be stolen anyway. Despite record oil prices, the regime in Teheran has mismanaged its economy so badly that it is bankrupt. Losing the $35 billion is like a struggling retiree looking in the sugar jar and finding that the next six month's rent money is missing. Spengler writes:

Read more ....

Opinion Piece From David Brooks, New York Times: The Reality Situation
Mega-Scandal in Iran: $35 Billion in Oil Money Missing from State Coffers

My Comment: The rot is there. But for the frustration and anger to come to a boil a lot more must first happen. The religious authorities are entrenched in all aspects of Iran's economic,political, and social life. Will there be a revolution .... the answer is no. As long as oil is running at $130.00 a barrel, the Iranian regime will have the resources to be there for a long time.

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